So, obviously, huge spoilers for Le Mouvement Final! I'd seen this theory before I watched the musical, and sorda wish I'd gotten to see it without this in mind to see what I would have thought on my own!
At first glance, it seems obvious that the musical confirms Sailor Cosmos as a future form of Sailor Moon, either reincarnated or not. She is played by the former Sailor Moon actress and repeatedly refers to "the mistake I made on that day." However, when she finally meets Sailor Moon in the final battle, after a brief conversation with her, she spends most of her time talking to Chibiusa as they watch the final battle and even after the battle ends, she refrains from going again to speak with Usagi, instead telling Chibiusa about her own battle. If she went back in time for her past self, this makes it seem like instead of Usagi, she might be... Chibiusa!!
This fits along with Chibiusa's character in other ways as well: she has a habit of going back in time, and she calls Eternal Sailor Moon the "ultimate Sailor Moon" rather than herself, reminiscent of Chibiusa's idolization of her mother. She does also call herself "the future Sailor Moon" but that could be either Usagi or Chibiusa.
Possibly more significant, though, are her inconsistencies with Usagi. Other than the fact that she spends hardly any time speaking with her, Cosmos, while she does mention all of her friends dying, never makes explicit mention to a lover. While this could just be coincidence, Kakyuu makes reference to her own lover like 3 different times, and we don't even know anything about them, making no mention of the theoretical future Mamoru odd. While this could also be because he wasn't reincarnated... like, come on this is Miracle Romance, there is no way Usagi would be reincarnated without Mamoru. Since Chibiusa's romantic future is kept vague, it makes sense to keep it that way for Cosmos as well.
Anyways, the main problem with this theory is that Cosmos constantly talks about how she made the wrong decision in her past, which seems to clarify that she's Usagi... except she doesn't actually use any personal pronouns! Rather than "I made the wrong decision," it's more of a "The wrong decision was made" kind of statement. Because the omittance of pronouns is common in Japanese and awkward to translate into English without pronouns, though, Miss Dream chose to use the "I" pronoun, as it is what implied in this situation. However, it could be Chibiusa going back to correct the wrong decision that her mother made at that battle.
Alternatively, Chibi Chibi, in similar fashion to old myu, at one point stops Chibiusa from talking to Sailor Moon, saying something along the lines of "the fate of the galaxy rests on this battle." It could be that in the past, Chibiusa intervened and helped Usagi make the decision to save everyone and continue the battle. So rather than thinking Usagi made the wrong choice, it could be that Cosmos thinks she made the wrong choice as Chibiusa to intervene, and that she should have let Eternal Sailor Moon, or "the ultimate form of Sailor Moon" make her own choice. However, after seeing that Usagi makes the same choice anyways, that's when Cosmos realizes she made the correct choice all those years ago in supporting Usagi.
I've seen this theory from a few different people and I'm still not sure what I think of it, except that I find it really really interesting! Cosmos as Chibiusa is something I never would have thought from just reading the manga, but here I think it is quite viable. Also, this tumblr post has some more thoughts about it, though a lot of it is similar to what I just said!
So, what do y'all think? Is LMF Cosmos Usagi, Chibiusa, or maybe even someone else?